A run of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives is “almost certainly” needed to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war through negotiation or military defeat, according to a new assessment.
It is “likely essential” that Kyiv has multiple, major victories against Russian forces in Ukraine for a settlement to be reached, or the Kremlin to accept their troops cannot win, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, said on Sunday.
Ukraine’s political and military chiefs have long discussed a spring counteroffensive against Russian forces. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Friday that Moscow was “calculating” for this counteroffensive, with the General Staff “preparing its own solutions.”
Kyiv’s troops made sweeping gains in operations in 2022, in which they retook much of the northeastern Kharkiv region and parts of the southern Kherson area.
But Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said it was “good” that no one had discussed counteroffensive operations in Kharkiv before they carried them out. Writing on Facebook on Saturday, Maliar said “silence gave the military [time to win] and do your job.”
Only the president, the defense minister and the commander-in-chief have the right to disclose strategic military plans, she added.
In light of a potential counteroffensive, it would “be an appropriate moment” for Putin to see that Moscow “cannot impose its will on Ukraine by force,” the ISW said.
But the Kremlin leader “has clearly come to no such conclusion,” the think tank added.
Ukrainian forces need a series of counteroffensive victories, the ISW said, to show Moscow that Russia “cannot hope to improve the outcome of the war by continued fighting.” There is “reason to expect” Kyiv could make gains through these counteroffensives, the think tank argued.
With Western backing, Ukraine will likely need successful counteroffensive operations to “effectively freeze the conflict on their own regardless of Putin’s decisions,” the ISW said.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv’s forces cannot get counteroffensive operations underground without further Western aid.
“We do not have ammunition,” he told the Japanese newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun.
“For us, the situation in the east is not good,” he said. “We need tanks for the de-occupation of Ukraine.”
But on Thursday, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said a counteroffensive could come “very soon.” The commander of Ukraine’s ground forces said on Telegram that Ukraine “will take advantage” of heavy Russian losses around the eastern city of Bakhmut.
The mayor of the Kharkiv city of Kupiansk, Andrii Besedin, suggested over the weekend that Kyiv’s soldiers did not yet have the military gear needed for a renewed push. Kupiansk was recaptured by Ukraine during counteroffensive operations in 2022.
He told Spanish newspaper El País on Saturday that although Ukraine’s fighters had enough equipment to defend themselves, they “don’t have what we need” for a counteroffensive.
Ivan Fedorov, Ukraine’s exiled mayor of Melitopol in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, said on Saturday that Russian forces in the city were spreading messages about a Ukrainian counteroffensive to “scare” residents.
“Instructions are distributed for residents: what to do in case of a counteroffensive of the Armed Forces,” he wrote on Telegram.
Newsweek has reached out to Russia’s Defense Ministry via email for comment.
A run of successful Ukrainian counteroffensives is “almost certainly” needed to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war through negotiation or military defeat, according to a new assessment.
