Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, a paramilitary outfit involved in the fighting in the city of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, appears to be toning down his attacks on Russia’s Defense Ministry (MoD). He is seeking to secure more supplies and recruits for the war in Ukraine, a think tank has said.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington, DC, said in its latest assessment of the conflict that Prigozhin has softened his rhetoric toward the MoD, likely out of fear of completely losing his forces in Bakhmut. It founded its analysis on a 23-minute interview published by the Prigozhin-owned company Concord on Telegram on Thursday.
The assessment comes as Prigozhin has had increasingly public clashes with the Kremlin, with the businessman even accusing Russia’s defense ministry of treason.
Prigozhin has said that government officials are intentionally withholding the ammunition the Wagner Group needs to secure victory in Bakhmut. Prigozhin added that he has lost access to recruiting in Russian prisons because of his ongoing disputes with the country’s defense ministry leadership.
The ISW said that Prigozhin emphasized his concerns about a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in eastern Ukraine during his interview. He added that Ukraine has 200,000 reserves concentrating on an attack along the entire eastern frontline, into Belgorod Oblast, and in Bakhmut.
Prigozhin also said that Ukraine has 80,000 troops in Bakhmut, Slovyansk, and Kostyantynivka to counterattack Bakhmut—a claim that former Russian officer Igor Girkin called dubious, the think tank said.
Russian and Ukrainian forces have been engaged in a bloody fight for the city of Bakhmut since July. It has become the longest-running battle since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Moscow is hoping to secure its first major battlefield victory since the summer of 2022 by capturing Bakhmut, a small industrial city with a pre-war population of 70,000.
Prigozhin had been leading a Russian offensive to take the city, but he has been increasingly sidelined by the Kremlin, with Russia gradually deploying conventional troops to the region.
“Prigozhin’s exaggerated statements about the imminent threat to Russian forces are likely an attempt to secure more supplies and reinforcements from the Russian MoD to save his forces in Bakhmut,” the ISW said.
The think tank observed that Prigozhin even made several positive statements about the Russian MoD. The ISW added that Wagner forces are fighting alongside Chechen units in Bilohorivka, in the eastern Luhansk Oblast.
“Prigozhin also surprisingly promoted both Russian MoD-controlled volunteer recruitment efforts and recruitment into Wagner, instead of only advertising service with Wagner formations as he has usually done,” the ISW said.
Some generalized criticism that Prigozhin leveled against the Russian military bureaucracy echoes the current state propaganda narrative, the think tank added.
“Prigozhin had been an avid critic of the Russian military command,” said the ISW, “and the softening of his rhetoric may indicate that he may be attempting to partially appease the Russian MoD to gain supplies or reinforcements for Wagner forces in Bakhmut.”
On March 6, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he would not be withdrawing his troops from Bakhmut and that they would be staying put to defend the city.
Since then, Western intelligence has said that Russia’s offensive to seize Bakhmut could be losing momentum.
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Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, a paramilitary outfit involved in the fighting in the city of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, appears to be toning down his attacks on Russia’s Defense Ministry (MoD). He is seeking to secure more supplies and recruits for the war in Ukraine, a think tank has said.
