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Deutsche Bank Collapse Risk Grows As Experts Wait for Next ‘Domino to Fall’

Another bank is entering troubled territory amid the recent banking crisis that has spilled into global markets—this time in Germany.

Deutsche Bank is facing fears of a collapse after shares dropped 11 percent on Friday morning, bringing those stocks down to a total of 29 percent since the bank chaos began on March 8.

“We are still on edge waiting for another domino to fall, and Deutsche is clearly the next one on everyone’s minds (fairly or unfairly),” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Reuters. “Looks like the banking crisis hasn’t been entirely put to bed.”

Friday’s stock market news is the latest development related to the fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) earlier this month, and the second involving a European bank.

This week, Swiss bank Credit Suisse was rescued by rival UBS in a last-minute deal after Credit Suisse saw a plunge in share prices following the SVB collapse.

Deutsche Bank’s latest slump, driven partly by the Credit Suisse deal, signals that confidence in the banking system remains low. It marks the third week of decline for European banks, which fell 4.2 percent in the wake of the financial turmoil.

Although the government-brokered rescue of Credit Suisse was believed to stabilize European markets, it appears the contagion has been hard to contain. Because holders of $17 billion in risky bonds from Credit Suisse were not written into the agreement, they were left with nothing, furthering fears about Deutsche Bank.

Despite a multibillion-euro restructure, the fall in Deutsche Bank shares erased any gains and made the German bank the worst performer on the STOXX 600, an index of European bank stocks.

While many are worried it might be the next bank to collapse, other analysts have remained optimistic that it won’t fall to the same fate as Credit Suisse.

“We have no concerns about Deutsche’s viability or asset marks. To be crystal clear – Deutsche is NOT the next Credit Suisse,” research firm Autonomous said in a Friday report.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also dismissed the panic, saying that Deutsche Bank had “thoroughly reorganized and modernized its business model and is a very profitable bank,” during a Friday news conference.

In a Friday memo, JPMorgan strategists said that Deutsche Bank “had its own share of headline pressure and governance fumbles,” but that it “still commands a relatively elevated cost base and has relied on its FICC (fixed income, currencies and commodities) trading franchise for organic capital generation and credit re-rating.”

“Indeed, if there is anything depositors might learn from the past few weeks, both in the US and Europe, it is just how far regulators will always go to ensure depositors are protected,” JP Morgan wrote.

Just a day earlier, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US government was “certainly” prepared to take additional actions to stabilize banks—a shift in tone from her statements the day before, in which she said no such moves were being considered.

Another bank is entering troubled territory amid the recent banking crisis that has spilled into global markets—this time in Germany.

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